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Ar\ chives)Tj 0.133 0.133 0.6 rg /TT2 1 Tf 12.1154 0 0 12.1154 237.5585 537.0905 Tm (Prometheus)Tj /TT3 1 Tf 14.5385 0 0 14.5385 313.6915 537.0905 Tm ( )Tj 0 0 0 rg /T1_2 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 256.7775 524.9732 Tm (Category:)Tj 0.133 0.133 0.6 rg /TT2 1 Tf 12.1154 0 0 12.1154 216.4284 511.3597 Tm (\253)Tj 0.6 0 0 rg 10.5 0 0 10.5 223.8188 511.3597 Tm ( )Tj 0.133 0.133 0.6 rg 12.1154 0 0 12.1154 226.4858 511.3597 Tm (Climate Change \273 )Tj 0.162 -1.324 Td (Category Index)Tj /TT3 1 Tf 14.5385 0 0 14.5385 322.8023 495.3212 Tm ( )Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg /TT2 1 Tf 12.1154 0 0 12.1154 19.5 441.0328 Tm (May 17, 2005)Tj 0.6 0 0 rg /TT4 1 Tf 10.5 0 0 10.5 74.784 418.1304 Tm (Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy?)Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg /TT3 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 19.5 405.6632 Tm ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (Posted to )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.465 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 61.652 392.152 m 154.02 392.152 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT3 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 61.6518 393.5478 Tm (Author: Pielke Jr., R. )Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg (| )Tj ET 159.99 392.152 m 230.036 392.152 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT3 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 159.99 393.5478 Tm (Climate Change )Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg -14.495 -3.125 Td (On several occasions I have alluded to the fact that I think that the de\ bate over the so-)Tj 0 -1.5 TD (called \223hockey stick\224 temperature reconstruction is a distraction \ from the development )Tj T* (and promulgation of climate policy. And the debate goes on \(and on\). W\ e have written )Tj T* (frequently about the core dynamic of the climate debate in which politic\ al opponents )Tj T* (pick a scientific sandbox to fight in, with little connection to policy,\ and fight things out )Tj T* (in a public manner under a pretense that the debate has significance bey\ ond science. )Tj T* (Over time this skeptic vs. hawk debate has taken place over a supposed C\ O2 sink in )Tj T* (North American, surface vs. satellite temperature trends, hurricanes and\ climate )Tj T* (change and also the \223hockey stick\224 \(among other areas\). Within s\ cience \(including my )Tj T* (own area of expertise\) subject matter experts engage in vocal and at ti\ mes nasty )Tj T* (debates over knowledge. Such dust-ups are characteristic of the academic\ enterprise. )Tj T* (But I\222d assert that the battles over climate science go far beyond ty\ pical academic )Tj T* (wrangling, are really proxy wars over something else. But what is that s\ omething else?)Tj 0 -2.97 TD (It might be political power, i.e., who gets to have a public voice on is\ sues of climate )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (change? Science is widely viewed as authoritative and legitimate, so eve\ ryone wants )Tj T* (the imprimatur of science on their side. From this perspective the battl\ e over climate )Tj T* (science is a battle for standing, with little connection to the substant\ ive connections of )Tj T* (the scientific debates and practical decision making. In other words, th\ e battle is over )Tj T* (who gets to decide what action we take on climate change and not what ac\ tions we )Tj T* (should take. This battle for political supremacy is most visible on the \ rival WWW sites )Tj T* (that have sprung up to join the battle over the hockey stick \(see )Tj ET 290.875 56.844 m 343.301 56.844 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT3 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 290.8749 58.2401 Tm (RealClimate)Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg ( and )Tj ET 19.5 40.806 m 76.607 40.806 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT3 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 19.5 42.2017 Tm (ClimateAudit)Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg (.\))Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(1 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 215 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 367.454 375 14.538 re f 0.6 0.6 0.6 rg 19.5 366.704 m 394.5 366.704 l 394.5 367.454 l 19.5 367.454 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 19.5 298.685 375 14.538 re f 0.6 0.6 0.6 rg 19.5 297.935 m 394.5 297.935 l 394.5 298.685 l 19.5 298.685 l h f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 19.5 748.4132 Tm (But there is also evidence to suggest that some people believe that the \ hockey stick is )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (relevant to decision making. For example, in its most recent assessment \ the IPCC )Tj T* (clearly considered the \223hockey stick\224 to be relevant to policy, as\ it included it )Tj T* (prominently it is 2001 \223)Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.465 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 120.649 703.402 m 239.544 703.402 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 120.6489 704.7978 Tm (Summary for Policy Makers)Tj 0.2 0.2 0.2 rg (.\224 The mission of the IPCC is to be )Tj -10.436 -1.655 Td (\223policy relevant\224 so presumably it is safe to say that any science\ that it presents \(and )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (particularly in its summary for policymakers\) it considers it to be rel\ evant for policy. )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (But because the IPCC does not explicitly discuss policy, there is no way\ to glean from )Tj T* (its reports why it thinks that the hockey stick is policy relevant. Furt\ her, the IPCC )Tj T* (clearly does not need the hockey stick to assert its scientific authorit\ y and legitimacy, )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (so there must be a very real presumption of policy relevance.)Tj 0 -2.97 TD ([There is also the possibility that the battle over the hockey stick has\ more to do with )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (personalities and egos than politics or policy. However, while I am sure\ that )Tj T* (personalities and egos play an important role in the evolution of this a\ nd the other )Tj T* (proxy wars on climate, I do not think that they overshadow the politics \ and policy )Tj T* (issues above.])Tj 0 -2.97 TD (So here is my question to Prometheus readers: Is the debate over the \223\ hockey stick\224 of )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (any policy relevance whatsoever, other than as a battleground for politi\ cal standing? )Tj T* (That is to say, is the future resolution of the \223hockey stick\224 deb\ ate at all relevant to )Tj T* (understanding \(a\) our available scope of options on climate change, or\ \(b\) how we )Tj T* (might evaluate those options? The views of those actually engaged in the\ \223hockey stick\224 )Tj T* (debate are solicited as well \226 why are you involved in this debate?)Tj 0 0 0 rg /TT1 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 400.397 Tm (Posted on May 17, 2005 10:41 AM )Tj 0.4 0.4 0.4 rg /TT2 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 19.5 371.7401 Tm (Trackback Pings)Tj 0 0 0 rg /TT1 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 343.7432 Tm (TrackBack URL for this entry: )Tj T* (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/moveabletype/mt-tb.cgi/404)Tj 0.4 0.4 0.4 rg /TT2 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 19.5 302.9709 Tm (Comments)Tj 0 0 0 rg /TT1 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 274.9739 Tm (It's not relevant to policy. The hockey stick is an iconic construct int\ ended to be knocked )Tj T* (down for rhetorical gain.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (D)Tj T* (Posted by: )Tj ET 0.388 w 65.676 208.965 m 86.773 208.965 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 210.1278 Tm (Dano)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 17, 2005 05:16 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 190.973 m 19.5 192.473 l 394.5 192.473 l 393.75 191.723 l 20.25 191.723 l 20.25 191.723 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 192.473 m 394.5 190.973 l 19.5 190.973 l 20.25 191.723 l 393.75 191.723 l 393.75 191.723 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 162.7624 Tm (I've been a professional scientist for over thirty years and as far as I\ can tell climate )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (change/global warming is policy masquerading as science. The policy is a\ nti-development )Tj T* (and redistribution of resources from the wealthier to the poorer nations\ . The "hockey )Tj T* (stick" is a tool to push the policy. The models are another tool to the \ same end. It doesn't )Tj T* (matter that they have no predictive power and don't agree with each othe\ r at any level of )Tj T* (detail except to "forecast" catastrophic warming. The clear sign that th\ is is policy and not )Tj T* (science is the unwillingness to countenance any cause other than CO2 as \ a possible source )Tj T* (for changing climate, e.g., the sun.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (This is just a continuation of the \(now discredited\) doomsayers from t\ he 1960's and 1970's )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (that began with the Club of Rome, Paul Ehrlich, and the rest. The sad pa\ rt about it is that )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(2 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 216 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 707.53 597 60.47 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 750.865 534.75 17.135 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 750.115 l 8.25 750.865 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 750.115 l 543 750.865 l 543 768 l h f 7.5 750.115 m 543.75 750.115 l 543 750.865 l 8.25 750.865 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 766.442 386.25 1.558 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 8.25 752.2506 Tm ( )Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 7.5 735.865 m 7.5 737.365 l 604.5 737.365 l 603.75 736.615 l 8.25 736.615 l 8.25 736.615 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 604.5 737.365 m 604.5 735.865 l 7.5 735.865 l 8.25 736.615 l 603.75 736.615 l 603.75 736.615 l h f 0 0 0.6 RG 0.465 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 200.422 720.925 m 238.125 720.925 l S 0 0.2 0.4 RG 238.125 720.925 m 246.034 720.925 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 200.4217 722.3205 Tm (Sitemap)Tj 0 0.2 0.4 rg /TT2 1 Tf ( | )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 246.034 720.925 m 282.108 720.925 l S 0 0.2 0.4 RG 282.108 720.925 m 290.017 720.925 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 246.0337 722.3205 Tm (Contact)Tj 0 0.2 0.4 rg /TT2 1 Tf ( | )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 290.017 720.925 m 324.483 720.925 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 290.0174 722.3205 Tm (Find us)Tj 0 0 0 rg /TT2 1 Tf ( | )Tj ET 332.392 720.925 m 411.578 720.925 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 332.3922 722.3205 Tm (Email webmaster)Tj 0 0 0 rg /TT2 1 Tf ( )Tj -33.521 -1.282 Td ( )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(12 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 217 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 759.289 Tm (is impossible to be really scientific and do independent experiments tha\ t would put a stake )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (through the heart of the whole nonsense as was done with cold fusion.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (As for your questions, the hockey stick, even if true, does not establis\ h the source of the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (warming. It can only claim to be a measure of temperature over the past \ thousand years. )Tj T* (Without knowing the cause, there is no justifiable course of action.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 65.676 669.049 m 82.726 669.049 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 670.2121 Tm (Paul)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 17, 2005 06:38 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 651.058 m 19.5 652.558 l 394.5 652.558 l 393.75 651.808 l 20.25 651.808 l 20.25 651.808 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 652.558 m 394.5 651.058 l 19.5 651.058 l 20.25 651.808 l 393.75 651.808 l 393.75 651.808 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 622.8467 Tm (Paul- Thanks for these comments. I think that it is of critical importan\ ce to differentiate )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (between the role that science plays in bringing a problem to the attenti\ on of polciy makers )Tj T* (from the role of science in policy and political processes in response t\ o that problem. In )Tj T* (the case of climate change it is very straightforward that the incessant\ emission of )Tj T* (greenhouse gases should provide reason for concern. The scientific commu\ nity has done a )Tj T* (heroic job in indentifying why we ought to place climate on our decision\ making agenda. )Tj T* (Where my interests lie are what occurs after that, and the role of scien\ ce in helping or )Tj T* (compromising our ability to clearly define and respond to concerns about\ human influence )Tj T* (on climate. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 498.395 m 131.882 498.395 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 499.5583 Tm (Roger Pielke, Jr.)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 17, 2005 10:03 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 480.404 m 19.5 481.904 l 394.5 481.904 l 393.75 481.154 l 20.25 481.154 l 20.25 481.154 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 481.904 m 394.5 480.404 l 19.5 480.404 l 20.25 481.154 l 393.75 481.154 l 393.75 481.154 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 452.1929 Tm ("In the case of climate change it is very straightforward that the inces\ sant emission of )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (greenhouse gases should provide reason for concern." Maybe, maybe not. T\ here is good )Tj T* (evidence that the CO2 level in the atmosphere was as much as 10x higher \ at earlier times )Tj T* (in the earth's existence. Life did fine and we're here. If the scientifi\ c case can't be made of )Tj T* (a direct and very strong connection between CO2 levels and genuine catas\ trophe then )Tj T* (there is nothing to be concerned about and certainly nothing to be done.\ )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (As time goes by, the case has gotten weaker and weaker. For example Hans\ en has kept )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (lowering his estimate of GW to the point where the temperature in 2100 m\ ight be as warm )Tj T* (as it was during the Medieval Maximum. Roman times were even warmer. Is \ that )Tj T* (something to worry about?)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (The whole issue has diverted attention from real environmental problems \ that can be )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (addressed in practical ways: pollution; energy conservation; habitat des\ truction. I'm sure )Tj T* (you can think of others. These are genuine problems that don't rely on d\ oubtful models )Tj T* (and uncertain science, they exist. Policy makers should not make policy \ based on "fake )Tj T* (but accurate" science.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 226.549 m 82.726 226.549 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 227.7121 Tm (Paul)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 10:00 AM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 208.558 m 19.5 210.058 l 394.5 210.058 l 393.75 209.308 l 20.25 209.308 l 20.25 209.308 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 210.058 m 394.5 208.558 l 19.5 208.558 l 20.25 209.308 l 393.75 209.308 l 393.75 209.308 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 180.3467 Tm (Dano- Thanks for your comment. But here is the problem that needs to be \ addressed -- if )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (the Hockey Stick is a rhetorical construct \(which I tend to think is co\ rrect\) then it must )Tj T* (have also been a rhetorical construct when used by the IPCC in its TAR. \ But the IPCC must )Tj T* (have thought that is was policy relevant. So this leaves two options \(a\ \) the IPCC was )Tj T* (misusing the HS to promote some agenda \(i.e., as rhetorical construct n\ ot really policy )Tj T* (relevant, but politically useful\), or \(b\) the IPCC was simply incorre\ ct in its judgment of the )Tj T* ("policy relevance" of the HS. Because no one openly addressed these poli\ cy or political )Tj T* (issues at the time of the release of the IPCC's TAR, we are now saddled \ with an )Tj T* (\(apparently\) unending debate over the HS, which lots of folks surely e\ njoy as great sport, )Tj T* (but which contributes little to actual policy development. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 43.78 m 131.882 43.78 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 44.9429 Tm (Roger Pielke, Jr.)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 10:13 AM)Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(3 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 218 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 762.288 m 19.5 763.788 l 394.5 763.788 l 393.75 763.038 l 20.25 763.038 l 20.25 763.038 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 763.788 m 394.5 762.288 l 19.5 762.288 l 20.25 763.038 l 393.75 763.038 l 393.75 763.038 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 734.0775 Tm (Paul- Thanks -- now I am going to act like a professor and point you to \ one of my papers, )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (where you'll probably find something to agree with and something to disa\ gree with:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Sarewitz, D., R. A. Pielke, Jr., 2000: Breaking the Global-Warming Gridl\ ock. The Atlantic )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (Monthly, 286\(1\), 55-64. )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 19.5 670.203 m 358.989 670.203 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 671.366 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resourse-69-20\ 00.18.pdf)Tj 0 0 0 rg 0 -3.45 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 642.337 m 131.882 642.337 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 643.5006 Tm (Roger Pielke, Jr.)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 10:16 AM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 624.346 m 19.5 625.846 l 394.5 625.846 l 393.75 625.096 l 20.25 625.096 l 20.25 625.096 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 625.846 m 394.5 624.346 l 19.5 624.346 l 20.25 625.096 l 393.75 625.096 l 393.75 625.096 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 596.1352 Tm (Roger:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (The _term_ Hockey Stick \(HS\)is the rhetorical construct. )Tj T* (The _data_ collected and analyzed that result in _data points_ used by I\ PCC are empirical )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (evidence that contribute to policy debate. The data points themselves th\ at inform policy )Tj T* (decisions are not rhetorical.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Those data can be called whatever. Bob. Lacrosse stick. Or not. It doesn\ 't matter. Terms )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (are irrelevant in the context you created here, Roger. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Subsequent empirical findings such as, say, by Moberg et al. have a diff\ erent shape but )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (similar conclusion, so the narrow confines of one particular rhetorical \ shape are immaterial )Tj T* (to policy [decision-makers presumably cannot extract signal from noise a\ nd rely upon )Tj T* (climatologists for that].)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Semantically and sociologically, of course, rhetoric contributes to ways\ of knowing and )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (influences decision-making. The creators of the HS icon know that well a\ nd have used it to )Tj T* (muddle the debate, sowing public doubt and delaying decision-making. Law\ makers in a )Tj T* (term-limit environment respond to influence and access. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Prometheus' attempts to assert that scientists remain above the fray are\ laudible for )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (adherents of Platonic and Cartesian science. Alternatives are problemati\ c and lead to )Tj T* (acceptance of rhetorical dialogue from the likes of Paul Linsay above, s\ o I appreciate your )Tj T* (attempts to bookend the debate, sir.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Best,)Tj T* (D)Tj T* (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 212.299 m 86.773 212.299 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 213.4621 Tm (Dano)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 12:04 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 194.308 m 19.5 195.808 l 394.5 195.808 l 393.75 195.058 l 20.25 195.058 l 20.25 195.058 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 195.808 m 394.5 194.308 l 19.5 194.308 l 20.25 195.058 l 393.75 195.058 l 393.75 195.058 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 166.0967 Tm (Dano- Actually I was referring to the data. Clearly the HS as a symbol h\ as great political )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (significance. But my initial query was focused on whether the HS \(or, i\ f you'd prefer, any )Tj T* (of the other proxy reconstructions\) have any meaning for policy, i.e., \ to understanding \(a\) )Tj T* (our available scope of options on climate change, or \(b\) how we might \ evaluate those )Tj T* (options. Thanks!)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 90.107 m 131.882 90.107 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 91.2698 Tm (Roger Pielke, Jr.)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 01:50 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 72.115 m 19.5 73.615 l 394.5 73.615 l 393.75 72.865 l 20.25 72.865 l 20.25 72.865 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 73.615 m 394.5 72.115 l 19.5 72.115 l 20.25 72.865 l 393.75 72.865 l 393.75 72.865 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 43.9044 Tm (That the hockey stick is useful politically in no way minimizes its scie\ ntific importance. )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (When the question of "detection of climate change" is being considered, \ the subject is )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(4 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 219 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 756.1736 Tm (actually detecting climate change against the background of natural vari\ ability. One clear )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (message of the flat shaft of the hockey stick is that natural variabilit\ y has been relatively )Tj T* (small for a long time before the mid-19th century or so.)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (Risbey et al. [Clim. Res. 16:61,2000] and Risbey and Kandlikar [Bull. Am\ er. Met. Soc. )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (83:1317, 2002] report many and diverse types of evidence which various e\ xperts find )Tj T* (variously persuasive in answering the question of whether climate change\ has been )Tj T* (detected. One of the four main evidences of detection reported by expert\ s to Risbey and )Tj T* (Kanlikar was the 20th-century global mean temperature trend. I stress th\ at this means )Tj T* (the contrast in recent global mean trend with the relatively flat trend \ portrayed throughout )Tj T* (the hockey stick shaft period.)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (Loehle [Ecological Modelling 171:433, 2004; and Energy & Environment 15:\ 1, 2004] )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (discusses Risbey et al's work in this regard, and points out that multip\ roxy approaches like )Tj T* (Mann et al's inherently tend to smear variability out of the record, eve\ n though the long )Tj T* (term trend may be correct. )Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (The question of whether climate change has or has not been detected, I t\ hink has clear )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (policy relevance. Your \(a\) and \(b\) categories seem to relegate deter\ mination of need for )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (policy change to someone other than "policymakers". I strenuously disagr\ ee, if that is the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (case. If the science is clear that a need for change is warranted, then \ scientists should be )Tj T* (able to communicate this to the policymakers.)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (The hockey stick scandal has important implications in this regard. That\ IPCC used the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (Mann et al. graph in a promotional way is as clear a fact as can be. The\ policymakers )Tj T* (should hear scientists' explanation for why the hockey stick was so embr\ aced. It will help )Tj T* (the policymakers understand what IPCC reports represent. One notion that\ I think )Tj T* (policymakers will not find reassuring is that IPCC relies so much on ini\ tial peer review by )Tj T* (journals like Science and Nature. )Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (Refs:)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (* Loehle, Craig 2004a: Climate change: )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (detection and attribution of trends from long-term geologic data", )Tj T* (Ecological Modelling 171:433, 2004)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (* Loehle, Craig 2004b: Using )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (Historical Climate Data to Evaluate Climate Trends: Issues of Statistica\ l Inference. Energy )Tj T* (& Environment 15\(1\):1-10, 2004)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (* Risbey, James, Milind Kandlikar, and David Karoly 2000: A Protocol to \ Articulate and )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (Quantify Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution. Clim\ ate Research 16 )Tj T* (\(1\), 61-78. pdf -- )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 93.678 164.472 m 357.923 164.472 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 93.6785 165.6352 Tm (http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~ris/publications/daproto.pdf)Tj 0 0 0 rg -9.184 -3.2 Td ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (* Risbey, James, and Milind Kandlikar 2002: Expert Assessment of Uncerta\ inties in )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (Detection and Attribution of Climate Change. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 83 \(\ 9\), 1317-1326. )Tj T* (pdf -- )Tj ET 45.427 104.299 m 314.275 104.299 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 45.4269 105.4621 Tm (http://www.maths.monash.edu.au/~ris/publications/daexpert.pdf)Tj 0 0 0 rg -3.21 -3.45 Td (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 76.434 m 121.132 76.434 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 77.5967 Tm (Steve Schulin)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 08:06 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 58.442 m 19.5 59.942 l 394.5 59.942 l 393.75 59.192 l 20.25 59.192 l 20.25 59.192 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 59.942 m 394.5 58.442 l 19.5 58.442 l 20.25 59.192 l 393.75 59.192 l 393.75 59.192 l h f EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(5 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 220 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 759.289 Tm (The 'hockey stick' is undoubtedly important but it is only part of the d\ ebate and a )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (distracting one at that.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (The hockey stick supports a conclusion that the effect of man on global \ temperature is )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (large. This seems to go further than your comment above that it is cause\ for concern. This )Tj T* (comes from a conclusion that previous natural variability was small and,\ thus, current )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (variability can all be attributed to man. This directly leads to conclus\ ions about \(b\) how we )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (evaluate options on climate change. \(I do not see that anything can aff\ ect \(a\) the options )Tj T* (available to us they always remain the same although our consideration o\ f them varies\).)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Beyond that, the 'hockey stick' has a much more limited role to play - i\ f man-made )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (contributions to the atmosphere are solely accountable for the recent in\ crease \(the blade\) )Tj T* (then that leads to conclusions about the strength of responses we might \ generate if we )Tj T* (reverse or reduce these and, thus, the efficacy of attempts to do so. Bu\ t it does not )Tj T* (illuminate the cost of doing so or the benefits from doing so - just the\ global temperature )Tj T* (that might result.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (The discussion about the costs and benefits is primarily an economic dis\ cussion. At best )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (the hockey stick can inform one part of the evaluation - the effect of a\ ny policies to restrict )Tj T* (CO2 output on global temperatures.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (And now the distracting part of the hockey stick. The evaluation of cost\ s and benefits is )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (one aspect of the politics of climate change that seems to be poorly stu\ died \(but not )Tj T* (poorly pronounced on\). The discussion on climate change to date is prim\ arily conducted by )Tj T* (people who specialise in the physical sciences but not the social scienc\ es.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (One example of this is the contre temps between Castles/Henderson and th\ e IPCC. Castles )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (and Henerson suggested that the IPCC was straying outside its area of ex\ pertise in )Tj T* (generating economic forecasts that were used as inputs to their climate \ models - and had )Tj T* (made some errors in doing so. They have consequently called for greater \ input from )Tj T* (statistical and economic agencies in formulating and evaluating policies\ on climate change.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (To sum up, a scientific conclusion on the effect of man on global temper\ atures should not )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (lead to any policy conclusions absent a thorough evaluation of the costs\ and benefits of )Tj T* (doing so. \(But the scientific conclusion will obviously inform that eva\ luation.\) To do that )Tj T* (economists or similar social scientists need to be involved in policy fo\ rmulation to a much )Tj T* (greater extent that seems to have been the case so far.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 65.676 282.799 m 92.847 282.799 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 283.9621 Tm (John S)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 18, 2005 10:35 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 264.808 m 19.5 266.308 l 394.5 266.308 l 393.75 265.558 l 20.25 265.558 l 20.25 265.558 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 266.308 m 394.5 264.808 l 19.5 264.808 l 20.25 265.558 l 393.75 265.558 l 393.75 265.558 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 236.5967 Tm (Thanks both Steve and John for your comments, and Steve for your pointer\ s to the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (literature. Very useful stuff. I would suggest however that this discuss\ ion has yet to go )Tj T* (beyond the political to considerations of practical action. \(And to be \ clear, by politics I )Tj T* (mean bargaining, negotiation and compromise. See also my earlier posts o\ n honest broker )Tj T* (vs. issue advocate.\) The approach to climate change under Article 2 of \ the Climate )Tj T* (Convention makes "detection and attribution" central to political debate\ over climate. I.e., )Tj T* (Article 2 results in detection and attribution as being necessary condit\ ions for action with )Tj T* (action defined narrowly as Kyoto and its follow ons. If the HS is viewed\ as scientific proof )Tj T* (of detection and/or attribution then it will obviously become a target a\ round which climate )Tj T* (hawks and skeptics will gather and engage in battle. I would characteriz\ e this more as )Tj T* (being politically relevant to adoption of a particular policy, rather th\ an being more broadly )Tj T* (policy relevant \(to policy makers\) in terms of \(a\) our available sco\ pe of options on climate )Tj T* (change, or \(b\) how we might evaluate those options? As the world appro\ aches the end of )Tj T* (the Kyoto time frame. I'd argue that my questions \(a\) or \(b\) become \ much more )Tj T* (important than Kyoto per se. For more on these dynamics see this paper:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Pielke, Jr., R. A., 2005 \(in press\). Misdefining Climate Change: Conse\ quences for Science )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(6 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 221 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 759.289 Tm (and Action, Environmental Science and Policy. )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 19.5 746.011 m 364.126 746.011 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 747.1736 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/admin/publication_files/resourse-479-2\ 004.10.pdf)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( )Tj 0 -3.45 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 718.145 m 131.882 718.145 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 719.3083 Tm (Roger Pielke, Jr.)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 19, 2005 06:43 AM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 700.154 m 19.5 701.654 l 394.5 701.654 l 393.75 700.904 l 20.25 700.904 l 20.25 700.904 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 701.654 m 394.5 700.154 l 19.5 700.154 l 20.25 700.904 l 393.75 700.904 l 393.75 700.904 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 671.9429 Tm (Roger:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Ah: does the visual have intrinsic value as a metric, thus having value \ for decision-)Tj 0 -1.5 TD (making? Got it. The next step being how do we make data compelling for d\ ecision-makers. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (I say data alone is insufficient to compel those without expertise. Non-\ contextualized data )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (is like asking whether a particular phone number tells you something abo\ ut the person )Tj T* (answering the phone. Even bell curves need labels on the axes, but there\ is usually )Tj T* (accompanying explanatory text to contextualize the graphic.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (I see you were trying to bookend the debate to frame your \(before now u\ nannounced\) )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (paper. Certainly, as John states above \(and folks like Lindzen allude t\ o when stating we )Tj T* (can't forecast in the future\) the socioeconomic component is understudi\ ed. Hence the need )Tj T* (for adaptive management and scenario analysis. Whether humans can utiliz\ e this approach )Tj T* (is, as you infer from your paper above, rather problematic. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (We simply don't manage ourselves well enough to plan for this situation.\ "Herding cats" )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (comes to mind.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Best,)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (D )Tj T* (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 377.184 m 86.773 377.184 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 378.3467 Tm (Dano)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 19, 2005 10:43 AM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 359.192 m 19.5 360.692 l 394.5 360.692 l 393.75 359.942 l 20.25 359.942 l 20.25 359.942 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 360.692 m 394.5 359.192 l 19.5 359.192 l 20.25 359.942 l 393.75 359.942 l 393.75 359.942 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 330.9813 Tm (There is a rather long response to Castles and Henderson which is rather\ well known.)Tj ET 19.5 303.453 m 383.188 303.453 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 304.616 Tm (http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/mscp/ene/2003/00000014/F0020002/ar\ t00005)Tj 0 0 0 rg 0 -3.45 TD (The abstract rather captures the tone:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD ("The response is:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (\225 The IPCC SRES reviews existing literature, most of which is MER bas\ ed, including that )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (from the World Bank, IEA and USDoE.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (\225 Scenarios of GDP growth are typically expressed as MER \(the prefer\ red measure for GDP )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (growth, as opposed to PPP which is a preferred measure for assessing dif\ ferences in )Tj T* (economic welfare\).)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (\225 IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, which Mr. Castles a\ nd Mr. Henderson )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (have conveniently ignored.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (\225 Contrary to what Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson claim, IPCC scenario\ s are consistent )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (with historical data, including that from 1990 to 2000, and with the mos\ t recent near term )Tj T* (\(up to 2020\) projections of other agencies.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (\225 Long-term emissions are based on multiple, interdependent driving f\ orces, and not just )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (economic growth. Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson need to look beyond GDP.)Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(7 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 222 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 743.8852 Tm (\225 The IPCC scenarios provided information for only four world regions\ , and not for specific )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (countries. Mr. Castles' and Mr. Henderson's critique is not of IPCC scen\ arios but of ongoing )Tj T* (unpublished work in progress that is not part of SRES.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (We therefore show that Mr. Castles and Mr. Henderson have focused on con\ structing a )Tj 0 -1.5 TD ("problem" that does not exist. SRES scenarios are sound and the IPCC has\ responded )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (seriously and conscientiously.")Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 65.676 641.53 m 104.728 641.53 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 642.6929 Tm (Eli Rabett)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 22, 2005 08:53 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 623.538 m 19.5 625.038 l 394.5 625.038 l 393.75 624.288 l 20.25 624.288 l 20.25 624.288 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 625.038 m 394.5 623.538 l 19.5 623.538 l 20.25 624.288 l 393.75 624.288 l 393.75 624.288 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 595.3275 Tm (Eli,)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (I am aware of that response. The essence of the comment remains. That pa\ per you refer )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (to and subsequent statements from the IPCC suggest that the IPCC don't r\ eally know what )Tj T* (they are talking about with respect to PPPs and MERs.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (A potted version of the counter can be found in the Economist )Tj ET 275.555 517.203 m 390.804 517.203 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 275.5546 518.366 Tm (http://www.economist.com/)Tj ET 19.5 503.587 m 230.397 503.587 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 504.7506 Tm (printedition/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=2189568)Tj 0 0 0 rg 0 -3.45 TD (I have also seen a paper by some people from Statistics Norway that sugg\ ests that the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (IPCC made an error in using MER but that, because of an offsetting assum\ ption the net )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (result is that the emissions scenarios are little affected \()Tj ET 248.828 451.491 m 387.04 451.491 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 248.8281 452.6544 Tm (http://stephenschneider.stanford.)Tj ET 19.5 437.876 m 278.487 437.876 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 439.039 Tm (edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/HoltsmarkAlfsen.sub170204.pdf.\))Tj 0 0 0 rg ( I can't comment on this )Tj 0 -1.686 TD (paper in more depth but the relevant point is still that the IPCC doesn'\ t understand the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (difference between PPP exchange rates and MERs. That is, they are not ex\ perts in )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (statistics and economics and that if they are 'correct', it is by chance\ not design.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 373.664 m 92.847 373.664 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 374.8275 Tm (John S)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 23, 2005 01:59 AM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 355.673 m 19.5 357.173 l 394.5 357.173 l 393.75 356.423 l 20.25 356.423 l 20.25 356.423 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 357.173 m 394.5 355.673 l 19.5 355.673 l 20.25 356.423 l 393.75 356.423 l 393.75 356.423 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 327.4621 Tm (John and Eli- FYI, we discussed MER vs. PPP and the Norway study a while\ back here:)Tj ET 19.5 299.934 m 248.368 299.934 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 301.0967 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/)Tj ET 19.5 286.318 m 227.238 286.318 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 287.4813 Tm (risk_uncertainty/000088reducing_uncertainty.html)Tj 0 0 0 rg 0 -3.45 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 258.453 m 131.882 258.453 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 259.616 Tm (Roger Pielke, Jr.)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 23, 2005 06:14 AM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 240.462 m 19.5 241.962 l 394.5 241.962 l 393.75 241.212 l 20.25 241.212 l 20.25 241.212 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 241.962 m 394.5 240.462 l 19.5 240.462 l 20.25 241.212 l 393.75 241.212 l 393.75 241.212 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 212.2506 Tm (The useful thing about the IPCC response is that it contains claims whic\ h directly )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (contradict the claims of Castle and Henderson, thus they should be testa\ ble. Neither the )Tj T* (Economist, nor Prof. Pielke deal with these. For example:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD ("IPCC scenarios did include PPP-based scenarios, which Mr. Castles and M\ r. Henderson )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (have conveniently ignored.")Tj 0 -3.264 TD (If we look at the detailed part of the IPCC response \(no cost at )Tj ET 278.745 122.011 m 392.896 122.011 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 278.745 123.1736 Tm (http://crga.atmos.uiuc.edu/)Tj ET 19.5 108.395 m 161.678 108.395 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 109.5583 Tm (publications/ipcc-sres-revisited.pdf)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( )Tj 0 -1.686 TD (pp 5 near the top)Tj 0 -3.264 TD ("Both measurements of GDP are provided in the underlying report and in p\ articular in )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (Appendix VII for all MESSAGE scenarios \(see also in SRES, 2000: Figure \ 3-1; Section )Tj T* (3.3.1, Box 3-1, Figure 3-12, and Table 4-19\). The writing team decided \ not to report both )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (measures of GDP throughout the SRES report in order not to generate conf\ usion about )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(8 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 223 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 757.616 Tm (growth rates and other scenario indicators that include GDP especially i\ n comparison with )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (the literature that almost exclusively reports GDP in MER, and which the\ SRES writing )Tj T* (team had the mandate to review.")Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Holltsmark and Alfsen have an interesting comment on PPP vs MER, basical\ ly that the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (latter overstates economic growth, but that at the same time \(and for t\ he same reasons\) it )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (would overstate the growth of emissions. )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 19.5 669.511 m 349.071 669.511 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 670.6736 Tm (http://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Publications/PDF_Papers/HoltsmarkAl\ fsen.)Tj ET 19.5 655.895 m 80.521 655.895 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 657.0583 Tm (sub170204.pdf)Tj 0 0 0 rg 0 -3.2 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 619.953 m 104.728 619.953 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 621.116 Tm (Eli Rabett)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 24, 2005 08:41 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 601.962 m 19.5 603.462 l 394.5 603.462 l 393.75 602.712 l 20.25 602.712 l 20.25 602.712 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 603.462 m 394.5 601.962 l 19.5 601.962 l 20.25 602.712 l 393.75 602.712 l 393.75 602.712 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 573.7506 Tm (The metaphoric term "hockey stick" has multiple meanings, at least two:)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (\(a\) climate reconstructions of the past 1000 years or so in general;)Tj T* (\(b\) the reconstructions by Mann et al. )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (\(1998 in "Nature" and 1999 in "Geophysical Research Letters"\).)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (The confusion between the two subjects might be inevitable during the )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (preparation and immediately after the publication of the IPCC WG1 2001 )Tj T* (report, because then Mann et al.'s seemed to be the only well-documented\ )Tj T* (reconstruction of global mean temperature.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (But, since then results of many more studies has appeared, and )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (debates on the two things should be distinguished now. )Tj T* (It seems that some people intentionally use the term "hockey stick" to )Tj T* (perpetuate the confusion and to deflect public attention from the )Tj T* (reconstructions other than those of Mann et al. )Tj T* (I do not think that Dr. Pielke had such intention, and from the )Tj T* (context I can guess that he meant \(a\). But, as far as I know, )Tj T* (the most well-known debate was about validity of \(b\). )Tj T* (Thus I think that the unqualified use of the term "hockey stick debate" \ )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (has an unintended effect to prolong the confusion.)Tj 0 -3.014 TD ( )Tj 0 -1.25 TD ([Disclosure: )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (As one of translators of Spencer Weart's "Discovery of Global Warming" )Tj T* (which includes the graph of Mann et al. \(1999\) as one of the few graph\ s )Tj T* (in the book with the word "hockey stick curve" in the caption, )Tj T* (I myself might have contributed to propagate the confusion in Japan. )Tj T* (Though the book was published in 2003 \(and in Japanese in 2005\), )Tj T* (it contains a perspective as viewed in 2001, and it was difficult )Tj T* (for me to add an appropriate note as the translator. That was one of )Tj T* (the reasons I began watching both Prometheus and RealClimate.])Tj 0 -3.264 TD (**)Tj T* (I think that the answer to the Dr. Pielke's main question is )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (dependent on another issue about how to frame climate policy )Tj T* (which he often emphasizes \(typically, in the article here titled )Tj T* ("What is climate change?" on 22 December 2004\). )Tj T* (As long as we base on the qualified definition of "Climate Change" )Tj T* (adopted by UNFCCC, and as long as not all stakeholders are )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (confident about projection of future climate based on theories )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (and numerical models, we cannot avoid the path of detection and )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(9 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 224 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 31.5 375 736.5 re f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 759.289 Tm (attribution. Then, the question what the climate was like in )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (the past millenium and how well we know it comes central, even )Tj T* (though it still seems to be one of weakest parts of climate science. )Tj T* (As long as UNFCCC is as it is, it seems inevitable for some people )Tj T* (who has opinions about climate policy to say something about )Tj T* (climate reconstruction.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Even without such external forcing, scientists will continue scientific \ )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (debates about validity of one study or another, but they will )Tj T* (be detached from policy discussion.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (But, on the other hand, it is difficult imagine how to frame )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (climate policy instead of the way that UNFCCC currently adopts.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (One direction is, as Dr. Pielke wrote in "Adaptation and Climate" )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (on 2 March 2005, focus on adaptation or resilience. )Tj T* (No matter what brings them, climate change and variation will )Tj T* (certainly occur some time, and it is better for the humans to be )Tj T* (less vulnerable to them.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Another thing is, as he discucces recently in "Cart or Horse?" )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (on 19 May 2005, the issue of "mitigation of excessive greenhouse )Tj T* (warming" may be subordinate to energy policy. )Tj T* (I agree with the general direction of the suggestion, )Tj T* (though I am not sure about particular things. )Tj T* (\(I understand that the discussion there is mainly oriented to )Tj T* (the national policy of the United States. )Tj T* (As a foreigner I do not want to participate in the discussion itself )Tj T* (but to international implications of it.\))Tj 0 -3.264 TD (I do not mean that climate change due to greenhouse gases is irrevalent.\ )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (But I mean that it can be considered less grave than year-to-year )Tj T* (variation of climate on one hand, and than the issue of limits of )Tj T* (energy resources \(as a physical scientist I would like to call it )Tj T* ("low-entropy resources" but it may be too pedantic.\) on the other hand.\ )Tj T* (I do not think that any "climate policy" concerning anthropogenic )Tj T* (greenhouse effect is viable without simultaneously considering )Tj T* (so-called energy policy.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (But, as I guess, international agreement about energy policy is )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (much more difficult than what has been done about climate policy, )Tj T* (even though the result of the latter until now may be tiny. )Tj T* (I think that we need to restrict growth of energy needs, and that )Tj T* (it implies de-construction of the concepts of "economic growth" )Tj T* (and "development". \(We must distinguish "good developments" and )Tj T* ("bad developments" from a new viewpoint, I mean.\) )Tj T* (Also, if we include nuclear power as an option, the issue )Tj T* (of proliferation of nuclear weapons will enter together, and, )Tj T* (in some sense, all the military issues will also be connected. )Tj T* (I am afraid that to frame the issue as primarily energy policy )Tj T* (\(internationally, I mean\) will be equivalent to postpone any effective\ )Tj T* (decision practically forever. )Tj T* (On the other hand, framing climate policy stand-alone seems futile. )Tj T* (It seems that we have a real dilemma.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Kooiti Masuda )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (In Yokohama \(sometimes in Fujisawa\), Japan )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 65.676 38.357 m 122.4 38.357 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 39.5198 Tm (Kooiti Masuda)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at May 24, 2005 09:12 PM)Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(10 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 225 0 obj<>stream /Artifact <>BDC 0 0 0 rg 0 i BT /T1_0 1 Tf 0 Tc 0 Tw 0 Ts 100 Tz 0 Tr 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 781.8775 Tm (- Prometheus: Is the \223Hockey Stick\224 Debate Relevant to Policy? Arc\ hives)Tj ET EMC /WebCaptureBG BMC /WebCaptureFN <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0.4 rg 7.5 18 604.5 756 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 1 1 1 rg 7.5 31.5 597 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 534.75 736.5 re f 7.5 768 m 7.5 31.5 l 8.25 31.5 l 8.25 768 l h f 543.75 768 m 543.75 31.5 l 543 31.5 l 543 768 l h f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 8.25 31.5 386.25 736.5 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 41.192 375 726.808 re f EMC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n /Artifact <>BDC Q 19.5 398.712 375 14.538 re f 0.6 0.6 0.6 rg 19.5 397.962 m 394.5 397.962 l 394.5 398.712 l 19.5 398.712 l h f EMC EMC EMC /Article <>BDC q 0 18 612 756 re W* n 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 756.865 m 19.5 758.365 l 394.5 758.365 l 393.75 757.615 l 20.25 757.615 l 20.25 757.615 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 758.365 m 394.5 756.865 l 19.5 756.865 l 20.25 757.615 l 393.75 757.615 l 393.75 757.615 l h f 0 0 0 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 728.6544 Tm ("John and Eli- FYI, we discussed MER vs. PPP and the Norway study a whil\ e back here:...")Tj 0 -3.264 TD (MER vs PPP is a lot like the "hockey stick"...a bunch of argument that i\ s basically irrelevant.)Tj T* (The IPCC and virtually the entire economics profession are so far wrong \ in their )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (projections of economic growth in the 21st century, that the differences\ between MER and )Tj T* (PPP analyses pale in comparison. )Tj 0 -3.264 TD (The IPCC TAR has a median projected world GDP per capita in 2100 of appr\ oximately )Tj 0 -1.5 TD ($45,000, and a maximum of $129,000 \(in 1990 dollars\). The actual value\ will be )Tj T* (approximately $8,000,000 \(in year 1990 dollars\):)Tj ET 0 0 0.6 RG 0.388 w 10 M 0 j 0 J []0 d 19.5 573.568 m 360.152 573.568 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 574.7313 Tm (http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2004/09/second_thoughts.ht\ ml)Tj ET 19.5 545.703 m 360.645 545.703 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 546.866 Tm (http://markbahner.typepad.com/random_thoughts/2004/10/3rd_thoughts_on.ht\ ml)Tj ET 19.5 517.837 m 139.668 517.837 l S BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 519.0006 Tm (http://www.longbets.org/194)Tj 0 0 0 rg 0 -3.45 TD (Since the IPCC's projected GDP per capita in 2100 is off by approximatel\ y a factor of 200, )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (it's not worth spending much time arguing PPP versus MER.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Posted by: )Tj ET 65.676 451.491 m 117.295 451.491 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 65.6758 452.6544 Tm (Mark Bahner)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( at June 5, 2005 08:11 PM)Tj ET 0.5 0.5 0.5 rg 19.5 433.5 m 19.5 435 l 394.5 435 l 393.75 434.25 l 20.25 434.25 l 20.25 434.25 l h f 0.875 0.875 0.875 rg 394.5 435 m 394.5 433.5 l 19.5 433.5 l 20.25 434.25 l 393.75 434.25 l 393.75 434.25 l h f 0.4 0.4 0.4 rg BT /TT1 1 Tf 9.6923 0 0 9.6923 19.5 402.9975 Tm (Post a comment)Tj 0 0 0 rg /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 19.5 389.2506 Tm (If you have a TypeKey identity, you can )Tj ET 184.94 388.087 m 211.674 388.087 l S 0 0 0.6 rg BT /TT0 1 Tf 8.0769 0 0 8.0769 184.9396 389.2506 Tm (sign in)Tj 0 0 0 rg ( to use it here. )Tj -20.483 -3.45 Td (URLs starting with http:// will be automatically linked in comments. No \ HTML will be )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (processed. A spam filter will review your post before publishing. Some w\ ords or URLs are )Tj 0 -1.5 TD (banned, e.g. poker.)Tj 0 -3.264 TD (Name: )Tj 0 -5.379 TD (Email Address: )Tj T* (URL: )Tj 11.207 -2.072 Td ( Remember Me? )Tj 10.376 0 Td (Yes)Tj 3.589 0 Td (No )Tj -25.172 -3.307 Td (Comments: )Tj 24.204 -16.872 Td ( )Tj 4.151 0 Td ( )Tj ET EMC /Artifact <>BDC Q 0 0 0 rg BT /T1_0 1 Tf 6.75 0 0 6.75 18 8.8775 Tm (http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000\ 435is_the_hockey_.html \(11 of 12\)10/19/2005 11:33:36 AM)Tj ET EMC endstream endobj 226 0 obj(- Prometheus: Is the Hockey Stick Debate Relevant to Policy? 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